MLB
How It Works
We pull every game on the slate, match it against fourteen analysis systems, and light up a badge when a system triggers. The more badges stacked on a side, the louder the signal. The gold ones are the strongest.
/// THE MATH
We take the schedule from the MLB Stats API, pull season pitching stats for each probable starter, season hitting splits for each lineup (including vs LHP / vs RHP), the standings (home/road/last-10 records), park factors for the 30 venues, current wind from Open-Meteo, and odds from The Odds API. That feeds a deterministic engine that returns a set of triggered badges per game.
Refreshes every 60 seconds during games via a launchd worker on a Mac mini, with a Vercel cron fallback every 5 minutes. Results cache in Upstash Redis so the page loads in under 100 ms.
PITCHING
Run prevention is the single biggest predictor of a baseball outcome. These four reward starters who are demonstrably better than their counterpart, or whose bullpen has the rest advantage.
Starting pitcher's season ERA is 1.0+ runs better than the opponent's (50+ IP min). The team with the ace has the run-prevention edge.
Starter strikes out at least 10 batters per 9 innings. Suppresses contact, limits BABIP variance, and boosts strikeout-prop equity.
Starter combines K/9 ≥ 11, WHIP ≤ 1.05, and ERA ≤ 2.50 — peripheral stats consistent with Cy Young-grade dominance. Strikeout props and team-no-runs-in-N specials.
Opposing bullpen has thrown 12+ innings in the last 3 days. Late-game arms are gassed, tipping leverage to the other side.
HITTING
Lineup form and platoon advantage. We use season OPS as a proxy for 'hot' and the team's vs-LHP / vs-RHP splits to spot the platoon edge against the opposing starter.
Team OPS over the last 10 games is .800 or better. Lineup is locked in and run output is trending up.
Lineup's OPS against the starter's pitching hand is 80+ points better than against the other hand. The platoon advantage is real.
ENVIRONMENT
Where the game is played and who flew in for it. Park factor + wind direction explains a huge chunk of total runs, and travel/late-game fatigue shows up most in early-window games.
Hitter-friendly venue (park factor 105+) with wind blowing out 8+ mph. Carry-the-ball weather lights up totals.
Hitter park (PF 105+) with wind blowing OUT 8+ mph — and the posted total is 8.5 or lower. The conditions tend to outpace the number.
Pitcher park (PF ≤ 95), wind under 8 mph or blowing IN, total posted at 9 or higher, and at least one starter with sub-3.50 ERA. Lean Under.
Home team wins 60%+ at home, road team wins under 45% on the road. The split between the two is significant.
Team played a 9pm+ ET game last night and traveled 2+ time zones for an early start today. Bodies are still on yesterday.
MARKET
What the line is doing. Heavy chalks suggest runline value; plus-money dogs with a real arm are mispriced; and when the underdog stacks 3+ system badges, the line itself is the signal.
Moneyline favorite at -200 or shorter. Look at the runline (-1.5) for better number — heavy chalks historically cover the runline ~58% of the time.
Underdog at +130 to +180 whose starter has a 0.50+ ERA edge over the favorite. The market is paying you to back a competitive arm.
Underdog has 3+ system badges in their favor — the line may be mispriced relative to where the math actually points.
/// CONFIDENCE LEVELS
Clean, high-confidence trigger. The badge gets a gold glow on hover.
Trigger met, signal present, edge moderate.
Threshold barely cleared. Use as supporting context only.
/// HOW TO READ THE SLATE
- 01.Open today's slate. Each game shows pitcher matchup, line, and any triggered badges.
- 02.Scan for games with 3+ badges stacking on one side — that's where the math is loudest.
- 03.Hover any badge for the full reason (numerical context). Click Show details on a card for park, pitchers, lines, and per-badge explanations.
- 04.For entertainment only. Badges are signal, not certainty.
For entertainment purposes only.